Electing a Mega-Mayor by R. Michael McGregor

Author:R. Michael McGregor
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: University of Toronto Press

Table 5.1 offers several noteworthy findings. For our purposes, the most important is that overall, Doug Ford’s support followed a geographic pattern similar to those of the federal and provincial Conservatives. In this sense, the pattern of his support was not atypical.

What was atypical was the degree to which he performed better in suburban Toronto. In the downtown core, Ford and the two Conservative parties received similar vote shares – around 15 per cent, much lower than their vote shares on the periphery. Where Ford was unique was in his performance in the city’s suburbs. While the federal and provincial Conservative parties saw increases of 13.6 and 16.1 percentage points, respectively, in suburban Toronto, Ford saw his support jump by a full 27.4 points. Indeed, he was the best-performing candidate in the city’s suburbs – it was his third-place finish downtown that led to his election loss. Neither the federal nor the provincial Conservative Party won in suburban Toronto – both came in a distant second to the Liberals. Overall, the difference between urban and suburban vote choice was greater at the municipal level than it was either federally or provincially. The average difference for the three mayoral candidates was 18.5 percentage points. The comparable values for the three major parties at the provincial and federal levels were 10.4 and 13.2 points, respectively. The urban/suburban divide thus seems to matter more at the local level (for Ford, in particular) than it does at the federal and provincial levels.

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